Critics feared it would plunge the Middle East into a wider war. That doomsday scenario has not come to pass, at least for now: Iran made only symbolic retaliation against America; soon after, a ceasefire ended the fighting between Iran and Israel.

The question now is what a shaken Islamic Republic in dire economic straits will do with what Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has called “a golden opportunity for change.”

The arrests have raised fears that a new wave of repression is coming, as the government seeks to root out spy networks and clamp down on any dissent.